Cosmic Rays, CO$_2$ Runaway, Sea Level Rise and Severe Global Flooding

ORAL

Abstract

In CO$_2$ runaway, the ocean surface layers (which in 1999AD contain, in each 100 m of depth, more CO$_2$ than the entire atmosphere) can suddenly become a continuous strong source of CO$_2$ as surface temperatures rise, because the solubility of CO$_2$ decreases 3 percent per degree Celsius. The evolving CO$_2$ increases atmospheric greenhouse longwave opacity providing positive feedback accelerating the CO$_2$ release (without the long time scales of deep ocean processes). Because the present atmospheric CO$_2$ concentration, 380ppmv, is already so much higher than the 270 ppmv thought to be the preindustrial Pleistocene maximum, it now presents a climate warming forcing so strong that orbital and other climate forcings, which in the past have brought about periodic ice ages, are not able to restore the glaciating mode.

Authors

  • John T.A. Ely

    University of Washington