Decomposition and Extrapolation Techniques for $\nu_e$ Signal and Background Predictions in NO$\nu$A

NO$\nu$A is a long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment, using two functionally identical detectors to measure $\nu_e$ appearance and $\nu_\mu$ disappearance at the Far Detector (FD) with the NuMI Beam at Fermilab. The Near Detector (ND) measures the $\nu_\mu$ flux, some of
which will oscillate to become $\nu_e$ signal at the FD, and the background components which can mimic $\nu_e$ signal at the FD. The background prediction has three components: Charged Current (CC) $\nu_\mu$, $\nu_e$ and Neutral Current (NC) events. We need to determine the fraction of the selected ND sample in each of these components because some oscillate significantly (CC$\nu_\mu$) and some do not oscillate at all (NC). We decompose the ND measurement in three different ways and extrapolate different components separately to predict the amount of signal and background expected at the FD. In my talk, I will present details of decomposition and extrapolation techniques for predicting the FD spectrum.