NIF ignition target requirements, margins, and uncertainties: Status Nov. 2009

We describe simulations of NIF ignition targets, including Be, CH, and C-ablator designs. Requirements define all aspects of the experiment: fabrication, laser pulse, and features of pre-ignition experiments. We describe a model, normalized to simulations, that characterizes the margin of the target as a function of input parameters and uncertainties. The model is used to quantify the impact of each requirement, and to project the probability of ignition, both shot-to-shot variations and given systematic errors. This presentation emphasizes changes in the requirements and margin modeling in the last year, and the relative performance of the final CH, Be, and C designs. Recent work has concentrated on surface perturbations on the CH ablator, and composition variations in the Be shells. LLNL-ABS-414529. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.