Data driven models of the performance and repeatability of NIF high foot implosions

Recent high foot (HF) inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments performed at the national ignition facility (NIF) have consisted of enough laser shots that a data-driven analysis of capsule performance is feasible. In this work we use 20-30 individual implosions of similar design, spanning laser drive energies from 1.2 to 1.8 MJ, to quantify our current understanding of the behavior of HF ICF implosions. We develop a probabilistic model for the projected performance of a given implosion and use it to quantify uncertainties in predicted performance including shot-shot variations and observation uncertainties. We investigate the statistical significance of the observed performance differences between different laser pulse shapes, ablator materials, and capsule designs. Finally, using a cross-validation technique, we demonstrate that 5-10 repeated shots of a similar design are required before real trends in the data can be distinguished from shot-shot variations.