Machine-agnostic ELM onset prediction using explainable AI zero-shot turbulence analysis

ORAL

Abstract

Scientific Artificial Intelligence applications often remain limited by device-specific training, creating barriers to cross-system generalization critical for future fusion reactors. We demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on MHz-scale beam emission spectroscopy turbulence measurements from DIII-D, successfully forecasts Type-I edge localized mode onsets in KSTAR without device-specific retraining. Through explainable AI combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network autonomously internalizes universal physics mechanisms governing Type-I ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features show identical triangular patterns between saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across both tokamaks. This establishes zero-shot machine-agnostic generalization for future reactor operations. Furthermore, we present that AI-based spatial resolution enhancement overcomes inherent BES spatial limitations, extending diagnostic capabilities beyond physical instrument constraints.

*Supported by US DOE Grants DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-SC0021157, DE-SC0001288, DE-FG02-08ER54999 supported, and R&D Program of KSTAR Experimental Collaboration and Fusion Plasma Research (EN2501) through the KFE funded by Korea MIST.

Presenters

  • Semin Joung

    • University of Wisconsin - Madison

Authors

  • Semin Joung

    • University of Wisconsin - Madison
  • Jaewook Kim

    • Korea Institute of Fusion Energy (KFE)
  • David R Smith

    • University of Wisconsin - Madison
  • Kevin Gill

    • University of Wisconsin - Madison
    • University of Wisconsin-Madison
  • George R McKee

    • University of Wisconsin - Madison
    • University of Wisconsin Madison
  • Zheng Yan

    • University of Wisconsin - Madison
    • University of Wisconsin Madison
  • Benedikt Geiger

    • University of Wisconsin - Madison
  • Azarakhsh Jalalvand

    • Princeton University
  • Egemen Kolemen

    • Princeton University