Estimating the State of Large Spatio-Temporally Chaotic Systems: Application to a Rayleigh-Benard Convection Experiment

Data Assimilation (DA) refers to the estimation of a dynamical system's state from the combined knowledge of past observations (possibly incomplete and noisy) and knowledge of an approximate model for the systems time evolution. Here we consider DA for spatio-temporally chaotic systems, and, in particular, we study the Local Ensemble Kalman Filter DA technique. We have applied this technique to Rayleigh-Benard convection undergoing spiral defect chaos. Using a system model (Boussinesq equations) and time series of noisy shadowgraphs we obtain estimates of the temperature and velocity field everywhere in a convection cell. This technique provides us with an indirect measurement of quantities previously inaccessible such as mean flow. We also demonstrate the utility of this method for forming initial conditions and producing 'forecasts' from the model.