Statistical Mechanics of Intractable Conflicts

We extend a statistical physics model of two-group conflicts (H. T. Diep, et al Physica A 469, 183 (2017) to three conflicting groups. We apply mean field theory (for long range interactions) and Monte-Carlo simulations (for short range interactions) to study the time dependence of the mean attitudes in each group. Using the mean field approach, we observe that at some intermediate temperatures the means of group attitudes oscillate in time. Independent of initial conditions, attitude trajectories converge over time to an attractor in the three-dimensional space of group mean attitudes. In contrast, chaotic unpredictable time variation of attitudes is observed for short range interactions. This model with attractors and chaos is proposed as a tool for understanding intractable conflict dynamics. It can be used to generate scenarios of possible trajectories in time, which can be empoyed for managing intractable conflicts.