Uncertainty quantification for PBX 9501 and TNT Equations of State

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for high explosives (HEs) require knowledge of the reactants, the detonation products, and the rate of transition between the unreacted and reacted states. Therefore, a full UQ in the context of HE requires multiple sources of data and results in a high-dimensional posterior distribution. This high dimensionality poses challenges to many standard UQ tools, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the use of surrogates to emulate expensive-to-compute quantities (e.g., data requiring hydrodynamic simulations). In this talk, various strategies for dealing with the above challenges for PBX 9501 and TNT will be discussed.