How host mobility patterns shape antigenic escape during viral-immune co-evolution
ORAL
Abstract
Viruses like influenza have long coevolved with host immune systems, gradually shaping the evo-lutionary trajectory of these pathogens. Host immune systems develop immunity against circulating strains, which in turn avoid extinction by exploiting antigenic escape mutations that render new strains immune from existing antibodies in the host population. Infected hosts are also mobile, which can spread the virus to regions without developed host immunity, offering additional reservoirs for viral growth. While the effects of migration on long term stability have been investigated, we know little about how antigenic escape coupled with migration changes the survival and spread of emerging viruses. By considering the two processes on equal footing, we show that on short timescales an intermediate host mobility rate increases the survival probability of the virus through antigenic escape. We show that more strongly connected migratory networks decrease the survival probability of the virus. Using data from high traffic airports we argue that current human migration rates are beneficial for viral survival.
*This work was carried out as a summer school project during the Les Houches summer school on Theoretical Biophysics. AMW and TM thank Alain Barrat for useful discussions. This work was supported by the European Research Council consolidator grant no 724208 (AMW, TM), and the Agence Nationale de la Recherche grant no ANR-19-CE45-0018 “RESP-REP” (AMW, TM). AI- R received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 847718. DS acknowledges the MIT Engaging cluster for providing computational resources and support. NB acknowledges funding from the EMERGENCE(S) grant program of thecity of Paris. This publication reflects only the authors’ views. The relevant funders are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
