Quantum Strategy Framework for Nuclear Verification: A Computational Public Policy Approach to Hedging and Latency

This work presents a computational public policy quantum strategy framework designed to analyze the effects of hedging and latency strategies on the stability of state actors operating near the threshold of nuclear capability. By extending concepts from control theory, the proposed approach models how coordination protocols, latency periods, and hedging behaviors interact to affect system stability, escalation risks, and deterrence dynamics. Technical and policy parameters (including access to dual-use quantum technologies, strategic signaling, and alliance structures) are encoded within the model, allowing for quantitative assessment of system robustness and strategic flexibility. The framework also addresses latent proliferation scenarios, offering insights into how control protocols can guide stability while minimizing the risk of sudden breakout or misperception. Time-series analysis is applied to assess volatility, regime shifts, and probabilistic hedging behaviors across temporal data, providing predictive early-warning indicators. We explore potential physical implementations such as satellite-based quantum communication architectures for global, secure entanglement and key distribution; fiber-optic quantum key distribution for secured data exchange in nuclear reactor operations; terrestrial free-space quantum links connecting facilities or verification sites; and hybrid quantum-secure networks combining these modalities for robust, real-time control and distributed treaty verification. Discussion will highlight opportunities for leveraging quantum protocols to enhance verification regimes and inform treaty design. This research aims to foster interdisciplinary dialog and encourage the adoption of evidence-based analysis for nuclear risk management in a rapidly evolving strategic landscape.