Insights from 3D Supernova Simulations into the Black Hole Mass Distribution

Ground-based gravitational-wave observatories have revealed a wealth of binary black hole mergers. However, models of the astrophysical population of binaries hint at an abundance of nearly 10 M_⊙ black holes, with remarkably lower merger rates at adjacent masses. We consider the possibility that this overdensity of black holes forms from ∽12–14 M_⊙ stars that fail to launch supernova explosions, as suggested by recent simulations. Motivated by this connection, we parameterize the black hole mass distribution separately for this 10 M_⊙ peak. Along with other population parameters, we crucially do not assume a priori that this population shares a minimum mass with the rest of the black hole population. Inferring the overall population using data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration's GWTC-4.0, we find hints that the population of higher-mass sources truncates above the 10 M_⊙ peak. Furthermore, the overall distribution is consistent with a highly suppressed merger rate for primary masses between 12–16 M_⊙. This suggests that the majority of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA black holes may be formed from a particular failed-supernova channel which operates over only a narrow range of masses.