A Model Independent Method to Predict IceCube-Gen2 Sensitivity to Neutrino Mass Hierarchy using Core-Collapse Supernovae

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory detects both high-energy astrophysical neutrinos and bursts of MeV neutrinos originating from galactic core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Its next-generation upgrade, IceCube-Gen2, will expand the instrumented volume by nearly an order of magnitude and employ multi-sensor Digital Optical Modules. These novel optical sensors will enhance IceCube’s sensitivity to low-energy neutrino bursts, and provide improved . In this work, we present a high-fidelity simulation framework based on the GEANT4 particle tracking toolkit. Using a flat neutrino energy spectrum spanning the 1.8 MeV – 100 MeV range, we compute the detector response independent of any specific CCSN flux model. By weighting this flat-spectrum response with supernova neutrino flux predictions, we generate a comprehensive library of IceCube-Gen2 responses for all major CCSNe models to date. This approach eliminates the need for repeated, computationally expensive simulations within the ice volume and can be readily extended to accommodate any future CCSNe flux model. Building upon this framework, we plan to conduct a Bayesian analysis to evaluate IceCube-Gen2’s sensitivity to the neutrino mass hierarchy using simulated supernova neutrino signals. The results of this study will provide key insights into the detector’s capability to distinguish the mass hierarchy in galactic CCSN events and advance our understanding of neutrino properties.