Peak Oil Production: How to Evaluate Estimates of Depleting Natural Resources?
ORAL
Abstract
We review recent data for world oil production along with forecasts that world production is at or near a maximum. Many books and articles about ``peak oil'' have appeared in the non-peer reviewed literature in the past few years; we concentrate on information available from the petroleum industry, governmental agencies and the peer-reviewed literature. A summary of possible alternatives to petroleum will be given, with emphasis given to arguments based on the concept of energy return on energy invested (EROEI). We conclude that there is at least a high probability that ``peak oil'' is close at hand, and if that is the case, the consequences will likely constitute one of the greatest challenges for the current generation of students. The topic of peak oil is one that fits naturally into classroom discussions of energy in introductory physics courses for non-majors.
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Authors
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Bruce Craver
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Rex Berney
Department of Physics, University of Dayton
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Robert Brecha
Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton