Biophysical Principles Predict Fitness of SARS-CoV-2 Variants

SARS-CoV-2 employs its spike protein's receptor binding domain (RBD) to enter host cells. The RBD is constantly subjected to immune responses, while requiring efficient binding to host cell receptors for successful infection. We developed a biophysical model that uses statistical mechanics to map the molecular phenotype space, characterized by binding constants of RBD to ACE2, LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309, onto a epistatic fitness landscape. We validate our findings through experimentally measured and machine learning (ML) estimated binding affinities, coupled with infectivity data derived from population-level sequencing. Our analysis reveals that this model effectively predicts the fitness of novel RBD variants and can account for the epistatic interactions among mutations. Our study sheds light on the impact of specific mutations on viral fitness and delivers a tool for predicting the future epidemiological trajectory of previously unseen or emerging low frequency variants. These insights offer not only greater understanding of viral evolution but also potentially aid in guiding public health decisions in the battle against COVID-19 and future pandemics.